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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Rookie QBs - Fact of Fiction

An incredible 5 rookie quarterbacks started the opening game for their respective NFL franchises this year.  How did they do?  In short - like rookies.  Everyone has overblown hope when they haven't seen someone play and we forget to temper our expectations.  In today's up-tempo everything-right-now society we don't give these guys time to develop like they used to.  Even Manning and Aikmen needed a few seasons of, well, seasoning before they realized their potential.  So while the stats were mostly terrible, there is still hope even though you have to squint really hard to see it (except in Cleveland - but if you had expectations for the Browns you probably shot yourself long ago).  Let's go through the rookies Week 1:

Robert Griffin III
320 yards  2 TDs 0 INTs 12.3 yards/attempt
By far the best out of the group.  He made all the plays he needed to, even throwing a block on a run and running himself for 42 yards.  That said, let's not go crazy.  He did not go down field much at all - the long TD pass was a 10 yard (maybe) slant where the Saints refused to touch the WR.  HE was also helped out by a few things - the Washington run game was working, he got up early so there was not as much pressure or urgency, and the Saints had the 30th best pass defense in football last year so it wasn't as hard as you think.  RG3 did what he needed to do and got the win, so he gets the gold star.

Andrew Luck
309 yards  1 TDs 3 INTs 6.9 yards/attempt
While most of the other rookies had something like mid-thirties pass attempts, Luck fired out 45.  The Colts were down and, rightly so, he was the only one that the team really trusted to let loose and pass a lot to attempt a comeback.  His yards looked great and his arm looked good watching the game but he also got helped by the match-up - the Bears, to my surprise, were the 28th best passing defense in the NFL last year.  From a purely eye test point-of-view I think he has the best passing skills out of the 5 rookies.

Russel Wilson
153 yards  1 TDs 1 INTs 4.5 yards/attempt
Wilson was a game manager to a fault for a team that needed him to do something.  The Cardinals are terrible which is the only reason he had a shot to lose it at the end of the game, and he did.  He had a bad yards per attempt which just goes to show that he was dumping off everything and not taking shots down field.

Ryan Tannehill
219 yards  0TDs 3 INTs 6.1 yards/attempt
He at least had a somewhat sort of OK yards per attempt.  He may have the worst weapons of anyone on this list.  I don't think he would trade his wife for Brandon Marshall (who the Dolphins traded in the off-season) but it's close. Check these stats out:

Brandon Marshall: 119 yds 1 TD
Dolphin WRs & TEs combined: 117yds 0 TDs
Yikes!

Brandon Weeden
118 yards  0 TDs 4 INTs 3.4 yards/attempt
Yuck.  By far the worst of the QBs.  He could not have looked worse.  He even fumbled twice but didn't lose them. 3.4 yards per attempt is horrible - to put it in perspective of the top 50 QBs in the NFL last season, Seneca Wallace had the worst yards/attempt at 5.3.  Tebow was at 6.4.  I don't have much hope for him and we should see Colt McCoy soon to take some pressure off of him.  Sadly, Weeden is much older than the other rookies which could allow Cleveland to bail on him sooner than expected.

"Tannehill does have some redeeming qualities."

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