Rory Winning Nike's Money Lottery

Rory McIlroy is a 23 year old Irish dude who is about to sign the biggest contract in sports.  Rory plays golf, and he is good at it.  Very good.  Last year he worked his way up to number one in the World Golf Rankings and led Europe's comeback in the Ryder Cup.  Apparently Nike thinks he is "the-most-marketable-athlete-in-the-world" good.  They are reportedly going to offer him $250 million over 10 years. That's more than the mighty Albert Pujols just signed in baseball.  Take a second to let that sink in.  This would be the third richest contract in the world next to A-Rod and....A-Rod (nice to be him).  A-Rod's current world's richest contract is 10 years for $275 million - not much more than McIlroy.  There is one small detail though - Rory's contract is to wear clothes and not for actually playing his sport.  He made 8 million last year in prize money!  That would be like paying baseball players to wear Nike jerseys and shoes and use a Nike bat and THEN they would get their salary. If Rory stays as good as he was last year and he gets more endorsements he could easily earn $40 million a year.

My question is - is it worth it for Nike?  If they are using money freed up by dropping Lance Armstrong and that's fine, but is Rory as popular as Lance?  Or Tiger? Or Phil Michelson? Or several other golfers?  Right now Rory is the man, he has been great this past year but it was only one year.  He has won two majors but I think the public and the media is looking way to hard for a "next" Tiger to dominate golf.  Good for Rory for capitalizing on that but he is 23 years old.  Is Nike really that convinced that he is going to be good for 10 years?  There have been over 70 golfers who have won two majors - it isn't as special as you would think.

The other issue is how likable he is.  Even if he is good for 10 years, is he going to be marketable and likable for 10 years?  We gave Tiger a pass because he was so good, and probably some because he is a huge minority in golf, but that guy was as boring as they come.  Up until his scandal, did anything interesting ever happen with him outside of being crazy good at golf?  That worked for him but I don't know how a boring European kid is going to sell stuff, especially in the US.  You may be thinking "Maybe Nike is just trying to expand its market into Europe and that's why they are giving Rory all that cash".  During his prime, Tiger was the most recognizable athlete in the world and I'm pretty sure if Tiger couldn't sell Nike gear in Europe, then Rory isn't going to boost those sales very much.

Golf is an old fart sport because of the time and money you need to get into it.  Even in the economic hey-day, that was the case.  That being the case I find it hard to believe that a 23 year old shaggy haired dude is going to make me buy Nike anything.  I assume Nike spent several million in research trying to prove me wrong but maybe they should have just asked a few people instead, because I don't know that many people who actually root for him.

"Plus he just looks like the kind of a guy you would want to punch in the face if you ever met him."