Peter King is Crazy

Every Monday Peter King, writer for Sport's Illustrated, writes his hallmark Monday Morning Quarterback column.  I like this column.  I like Peter King.  I also like advanced metrics.  This Monday's column made me not like all of those things - specifically the goat section.  This is what he wrote:

Goat of the Week

Greg Schiano, head coach, Tampa Bay. The choice Schiano had to make with 70 seconds left in the fourth quarter and a 16-14 lead over New Orleans, with a 4th-and-3 at the Saints’ 29, in a game in which neither team had any timeouts left: He could have punted and pinned Drew Brees at the, say, 10-yard line with 64 seconds left. Brees would have needed maybe 60 yards to get into Garrett Hartley field-goal range. Or he could have the August waiver signing from Buffalo, Rian Lindell, try a 47-yard field goal. If Lindell made it, the Saints would have had to drive for a touchdown to win the game. If Lindell missed it, the Saints would get the ball at their 37- and need 30 yards to be in field-goal range. Schiano decided to try the field goal. It was shanked. Brees went 54 yards, sweatlessly, to the winning chip-shot field goal as the clock expired. Bad decision by a coach under fire.

Here is my argument - who punts form the 29 yard line?  Has that ever happened?  I asked a few of my football friends what they would do and punt was the third option for everyone I asked.  Scoring a touchdown is so much harder than getting a field goal, even more so when you know that the Saints had only scored 13 points in the game.  I would maybe argue that they should have gone for it because even if you don't get it you are trading a shot at sealing the win for 10-15 yards of field position.  I also take issue with King slamming Lindell as a kicker.  He is older but this guy is a grizzled veteran.  Why have a kicker if you don't trust him to make a 46 yard field goal?  Now to Peter King's aid comes the dork patrol with win expectancy numbers:

"You can check out the nerd article here."

There is no way these numbers take into account all the factors involved.  The Saints had only one touchdown to that point in the whole game?  Why would Schiano expect one in the last minute?  Maybe some stat nerds kill the coach for the field goal attempt, but if he punted and got a touch-back or they scored anyway he would get much more heat.  Then again if the Bucs don't suck, no one cares.